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Professor An Soon-ll Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University

"Professor An Soon-ll and his Colleagues Find How el Nino will be in a Warming Climate"

El nino is an abnormal tropical Pacific warming phenomena happening with a quasi-regular cycle of 2-7 years. It has climatic and socioeconomic impacts all over the globe through local and remote teleconnections, and the damage is greatly severe. In this regard, ‘how El nino will be in a future due to a global warming’ is a hot issue in climate science society. The 5th assessment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) reported that changes in the intensity and spatial pattern of El nino in a warming climate couldn’t be significantly identified. In general, change in El nino intensity due to global warming may be insignificant. However, when it comes to the extreme El nino (or super El nino), because of the weakening of climatological equatorial zonal surface current in a warmer climate, the frequency of extreme El nino event due to global warming is expected to increase as proposed by Prof. An and his colleague in ‘nature’. Furthermore, in another paper in ‘nature Climate Change’, he and his colleague also showed that change in El nino intensity due to global warming is non-monotonic. In other words, the EnSO intensity will increase until the early 21st century and afterward decrease.Different from the conventional approach on exploring future El nino in other studies, these two studies took unique approaches that have not been introduced, which sheds light on our understanding on the future change in El nino properties


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